etrm: Energy Trading and Risk Management in R

This paper introduces etrm, an R package with tools for trading and financial risk management in energy markets. Contracts for electric power and natural gas differ from most other commodities due to the fact that physical delivery takes place over a time interval, and not at a specific point in time. There is typically strong seasonality, limited storage and transmission capacity and strong correlation between price and required volume. Such characteristics need to be taken into account when pricing contracts and managing financial risk related to energy procurement. Tools for these task are usually bundled into proprietary Energy Trading Risk Management (ETRM) systems delivered by specialized IT vendors. The etrm package offers a transparent solution for building a forward price curve for energy commodities which is consistent with methods widely used in the industry. The user’s fundamental market view may be combined with contract price quotes to form a forward curve that replicate current market prices, as described in Ollmar (2003) and Benth et al. (2007). etrm also provides implementations of five portfolio insurance trading strategies for energy price risk management. The forward market curve and the energy price hedging strategies are core elements in an ETRM system, which to the best of the author’s knowledge has not been previously available in the R ecosystem.publishedVersio

Essays on Portfolio Risk Management and Weather Derivatives

Denne avhandlingen handler om utvikling og praktisk implementering av risikostyringsmetoder for investeringsporteføljer, energiporteføljer, og håndtering av vær- og forurensningsrisiko. Avhandlingen inkluderer tre vitenskapelige artikler som hver tar for seg ulike aspekter av finansiell risikostyring. Den første fokuserer på metoder for aktivaallokering når det eksisterer asymmetrisk avhengighet mellom avkastningene for eiendelene i en investeringsportefølje. Den andre artikkelen omhandler energiprisrisikostyring, og introduserer et åpen kildekodeverktøy for energiporteføljeforvaltning som er utviklet som en del av doktorgradsprosjektet. Den siste artikkelen presenterer et teoretisk rammeverk for håndtering av forurensningsrisiko ved hjelp av finansielle derivatkontrakter, som bygger på den eksisterende teorien om værderivater. Disse arbeidene bidrar alle til det overordnede temaet for avhandlingen, som er utvikling av risikostyringsmetoder for ulike typer porteføljer og utforskingen av rollen til finansielle derivater i håndtering av risiko knyttet til markedspriser, vær og forurensning. For å sette bidragene inn i en teoretisk kontekst har vi inkludert et kort kapittel som presenterer alternative metoder for avhengighetsmodellering, og hvordan disse kan utnyttes når man forvalter investeringsporteføljer. Ett av disse målene, lokal gaussisk korrelasjon, brukes til å utvide det klassiske mean-variance-rammeverket for aktivaallokering i den første artikkelen. Deretter følger et kort introduksjonskapittel til spot- og forwardmarkeder for energi. Hovedfokuset her er råvareprisrisiko, og hvordan denne kan håndteres med finansielle derivatkontrakter. Vi demonstrerer hvordan forvaltning av energiporteføljer kan gjennomføres med vårt åpen kildekodeverktøy ved bruk av data fra det europeiske kraftmarkedet. Til slutt inkluderes et kapittel om værderivater. Dette inneholder en introduksjon til værrelatert risiko, en kort introduksjon til værmarkedet, vanlige kontraktstyper og alternative metoder for prising. For å sikre reproduserbarhet har vi også lagt til et kapittel om programkode. Her finnes lenker til Git-repositorier med alle data og R-kode for å gjennomføre analysene som presenteres i avhandlingen.This thesis is concerned with the development and practical implementation of risk management methods for investment portfolios, energy portfolios, and weather and pollution risk. The thesis includes three scientific papers that each address different aspects of financial risk management. The first paper focuses on portfolio allocation in the presence of asymmetric dependence between asset returns. The second paper examines energy price risk management, and introduces an open source toolkit for energy portfolio management which has been developed as a part of the PhD project. The final paper present a theoretical framework for managing pollution risk using financial derivatives contracts, which builds upon the existing theory of weather derivatives. These papers all contribute to the overall theme, which is the development of risk management methods for various types of portfolios and the exploration of the role of financial derivatives in managing risks related to market prices, weather and pollution. In order to provide a theoretical context, we have included a brief chapter exploring alternative methods for dependence modelling and how these may be utilized when managing investment portfolios. One of these measures, the local Gaussian correlation, is used to extend the classical mean-variance framework for asset allocation in the first paper. Thereafter, a short introduction to spot and forward energy markets is provided. The primary focus here is commodity market price risk, and how this can be managed with financial derivatives contracts. We demonstrate how portfolio management may be performed with our open source toolkit using European energy market data. Finally, we include a chapter on weather derivatives. This contains a introduction to weather related risk, a brief introduction to the weather markets, frequently used contract types and pricing methods. To ensure reproducibility, we have also added a chapter on computer code, where the interested reader may find links to Git repositories with all data and the R code needed to run the analysis presented in the thesis.Doktorgradsavhandlin

Portfolio allocation under asymmetric dependence in asset returns using local Gaussian correlations

It is well known that there are asymmetric dependence structures between financial returns. This paper describes a portfolio selection method rooted in the classical mean–variance framework that incorporates such asymmetric dependency structures using a nonparametric measure of local dependence, the local Gaussian correlation (LGC). It is shown that the portfolio optimization process for financial returns with asymmetric dependence structures is straightforward using local covariance matrices. The new method is shown to outperform the equally weighted (“1/N”) portfolio and the classical Markowitz portfolio when applied to historical data on six assets.publishedVersio

Portfolio allocation under asymmetric dependence in asset returns using local Gaussian correlations

It is well known that there are asymmetric dependence structures between financial returns. This paper describes a portfolio selection method rooted in the classical mean–variance framework that incorporates such asymmetric dependency structures using a nonparametric measure of local dependence, the local Gaussian correlation (LGC). It is shown that the portfolio optimization process for financial returns with asymmetric dependence structures is straightforward using local covariance matrices. The new method is shown to outperform the equally weighted (“1/N”) portfolio and the classical Markowitz portfolio when applied to historical data on six assets